The surplus for the period from January to November increased by a stunning 13.3% compared to the same period last year.
China’s surplus with the EU rose to $219 billion in January-November, up 13% from $194 billion Last Year.
While trade with the EU accounts for 13% of China’s total trade, the European Union contributes 25% of China’s total surplus.
The wording of the Chinese media narrative is, as usual, selective; not a word is mentioned about the surplus with the European Union. Instead, with blatant cherry-picking, the message is that China-EU trade is gaining momentum despite challenges
From the total trade perspective, China’s trade is roughly a 50/50 split between advanced and developing economies.
*Others include countries such as Kyrgyzstan or Tuvalu, but also Norway or Switzerland
*Others include countries such as Kyrgyzstan or Tuvalu, but also Norway or Switzerland
*Other include countries such as Kyrgyzstan or Tuvalu, but also Norway or Switzerland
Brazilian ports have been clogged this year with upwards of 70,000 unsold Chinese EVs. In words of Alexander Seitz, executive chairman of the South American unit of Volkswagen AG
The honeymoon is over now
Also, reimports aimed at the domestic market from Foxconn in Zhengzhou plummeted by 36%, while cellphone imports from Vietnam dropped by 32%.
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Carriers may claim EU-bound shipments from China grew (+4.7% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024), but import value fell 3.4%, with the CIF price per kilogram dropping nearly 8% in 2024.
Over the first three quarters of 2024, the euro appreciated by 2.6% on average against the CNY while remaining stable against the USD. However, freight rates were substantially higher than in the same period of 2023.
At least as a New York Times columnist. The man who redefined the field of economic geography in the 1980s and 1990s with a groundbreaking paper cited over 10,000 times will publish his final column this month. Those who follow international trade often wonder, with the perfect hindsight of time, whether Nobel laureate Paul Krugman’s seminal work would have been the same had he known China’s trade trajectory post-2001. Love him or disagree with him, his column will undoubtedly be missed.
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) was announced on December 30, 2020, after seven years of negotiations. Presented as a political agreement pending the finalization of the legal text and ratification, it was shelved in spring 2021 and now rests in peace. For those willing to spend €140 to dig up the past, Springer has just published a 300-page book detailing all that was planned but never enacted.
On December 17, the EU will release its export data for October. Regarding China, we forecast a 3% to 4% decline in EU exports to China compared to the same month last year.
SOAPBOX will be taking a break for the holiday season. Wishing you a joyful and peaceful time with your loved ones. Remember that trade is the ultimate test of patience, we’ll be back on Monday, December 30th!