Nearly half of world’s countries aren’t producing enough children to maintain their current populations in the long term
When most of us hear warnings of a global population crisis, we think of the ever rising numbers of people across the world putting ever greater pressure on its finite resources.
In the course of the 20th century, the number of humans rose from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion. Today the number stands at an estimate 7.7 billion and could rise to almost 10 billion by the middle of this century.
A new study, however, has revealed a different kind of population crisis emerging among almost half the world’s states. In these predominantly developed countries, fertility rates have fallen to the point where they are now facing an eventual population decline.
The contrasts revealed by the study, published this month in The Lancet, a British medical journal, are stark.
While in the West African country of Niger, the average mother will bear seven children, her counterpart on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus will have just one child. In China, the world’s most populous state, the fertility rate stands at around 1.5.
On a worldwide basis, birthrates have been on the decline since the 1950s, but global population rates have continued to rise. That reflects some positive developments: Thanks to medical advances, people are living longer, infant deaths are down and modern agriculture has vastly increased food production.
At the same time, lower fertility rates reflect improvements in the lives of women in much of the world. Many can now choose to pursue a career, start a family later and take advantage of better birth control services to decide how many children they want.
But there is a downside for low-fertility countries in a world divided between “baby booms” and “baby busts”, as the study describes them. Low birthrates lead to aging populations in which greater demands are made on younger people to support the healthcare and welfare of the elderly.
All this raises the question of what individual governments can do to influence population numbers within their respective states.
Probably the most notable intervention was China’s decision to implement a one child per family policy in 1979 as part of its modernization reforms following a period of explosive population growth. The policy was ended in 2016 after a period in which millions had been lifted out of poverty and as China began to face the challenges posed by an aging population.
Other tools are available for states to determine their population rates. Tax and welfare benefit policies can be used to encourage people to have more or fewer children.
In some countries, including the UK and Russia, governments have responded to the phenomenon of aging populations by increasing the retirement age for men and women.
But beyond government policies, other factors can have a bearing on people’s life choices, ranging from the economic requirement for both members of a couple to have a job to the limited space available in an increasingly urbanized world to raise large families.
The bottom line for 91 states out of 195 studied is that they are not producing enough children to maintain their current populations in the long term. A fertility rate of 2.1 is required to ensure a stable population. If it is lower than that, populations will inevitably start to shrink. High fertility rates are most apparent in poorer developing countries – nine African countries are in the top 10 – while low fertility is more common in more advanced economies.
One response to declining fertility rates is to encourage immigration from relatively poorer countries that are experiencing a baby boom. Many low-fertility European countries already rely on newcomers from abroad to provide a labor force for essential services.
In Europe and elsewhere, however, immigration has provoked a backlash from nationalist forces. They insist there is no more room for foreigners, despite the evidence to the contrary of their countries’ chronically declining fertility rates.
The author is a senior media consultant for China Daily. Contact the writer at [email protected]
(China Daily European Weekly 11/16/2018 page10)