Over the past twenty years China increased its exports six-fold. The EU is the only advanced region where China maintained its share of exports despite its brutal growth while the rest of the advanced regions declined. The EU has consistently played a key role in absorbing China’s exports while Beijing used this time to pivot toward emerging markets
Given the EU’s crucial role in absorbing Chinese exports, Beijing’s planners must tread carefully in their relations with the bloc.
Agrifood imports from the EU to China have seen a significant drop, with six key categories now accounting for 82% of the total. Among these, only miscellaneous edible preparations showed growth in 2024, rising by 17%, while the other categories experienced declines.
Overall, these six major categories have dropped by 14% year-over-year. The largest declines were observed in meat, which plunged by 27%, and cereals, which fell by 23%. Other notable decreases are beverages, including alcoholic drinks, down 19%, and dairy, which dropped by 15%. The category of cereals preparations also saw a decline of 11%.
The remaining agrifood categories collectively dropped by 9%.
The import figures reflect Beijing’s warnings to the EU last spring that China would retaliate and harm the EU agricultural sector
Semaglutide, the active ingredient in weight-loss drugs causing a global frenzy, is set to make up one-third of Denmark’s exports to China in 2024.
These exports won’t be found in the Danish data reported to EUROSTAT, as they are classified under a special destination code. However, they are visible in China’s customs records, which openly report the origin of the shipments.
Unlike the EU’s dependencies on other third countries, most of its dependencies on China are categorized as Single Points of Failure (SPOFs).
One such SPOF is permanent magnets. In 2024, the value of Chinese exports of rare earth permanent magnets to the EU dropped by 17%, while export volumes rose by 4%.Half of these exports went to Germany.
The year begins as it ended, with further signs of increasing trade and political tensions between China and the U.S. On January 2, the Ministry of Commerce announced that
“China has decided to include 28 US entities that endanger China’s national security and interests on the export control list”
Starting January 2025, Mexico Tax Administration Service (SAT) will charge a 16% VAT on foreign e-commerce platforms like Shein, Temu, and AliExpress. These measures include a 35% tariff for made clothing and accessories, as well as 15% for textiles such as denim. Supervision will be increased to ensure that courier companies identify those importing goods from Asia without paying the corresponding taxes.
Mexico’s SAT mandates that digital service providers register in its official registry, which features major platforms like Amazon, Facebook, and Airbnb. However, our review of the registry did not include any Chinese companies.
Except for the month immediately following the lifting of COVID measures, companies’ sentiment regarding increasing employment has consistently been unfavorable.
Mauricio Claver-Carone, a former senior official in the U.S. Treasury Department and National Security Council under Donald Trump, has called for a 60% tariff on all goods passing through Peru’s Chancay Port, regardless of origin.
The port, funded and operated by China’s state-owned enterprise COSCO, is managed under an indefinite contract.
In the past two years, its exports of IP services have dropped by 12%, while its imports have increased by 7%.
While global trade in goods grows by just 2% in 2024 (compared to nearly 8% growth in services), logistics turmoil causes a severe global imbalance in container availability.
In 2025, China is set to double its container exports, with the 40-foot segment increasing nearly fivefold in value.
India is piggybacking on U.S. policies, with nearly 100% of its shipments of photovoltaic cells mounted into panels now destined for the U.S. However, these figures represent just 11% of China’s exports in the same category to the European Union.
China top exports 2024
One year has passed since Javier Milei assumed office in Argentina. His refusal to join BRICS in December 2023 delivered a notable snub to Xi Jinping, who had announced at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023 that Argentina would join as a new member in January 2024. Given the typically cautious nature of China’s diplomacy, Xi’s miscalculation of Argentina’s 2023 autumn election outcome appears somewhat puzzling.
During Milei’s first year in office, total trade between Argentina and China fell by 25% from its peak in 2022. Beef accounts for one-quarter of China’s imports from Argentina, but this trade faces uncertainty due to an ongoing probe by China into beef imports. While the volume of Chinese meat imports from Argentina remained steady, prices dropped by nearly 7%.
While China’s smartphone exports dropped by 2% in value in 2024, exports from Foxconn’s Zhengzhou assembly hub for Apple saw a more significant decline, plunging by 16%.
1 China 2 Republic of Korea 3 Singapore 4 United States 5 Malaysia
6 Spain 7 Viet Nam 8 Japan 9 United Kingdom 10 Hong Kong (China SAR)
The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) indicates a country’s integration into global liner shipping networks. Countries’ access to world markets depends largely on their transport connectivity.
For a specific port, look up the Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (PLSCI).
Alexander Whiteman interviews Lars Jensen, CEO and partner at Vespucci Maritime, for The Loadstar.
The resumption of services through the Suez Canal would involve further network changes, he said. Jensen also questioned whether carriers would be willing to make these changes before August, ‘at least.’
During the decade from 2012 to 2023, China’s GDP increased by 2.5 times, while State-owned enterprises (SOEs) saw their assets grow by a factor of 4.5. If SOE profits in 2012 were equivalent to 3.8% of China’s GDP, they dropped to 3.5% ten years later.
It is no surprise that Qiushi advocates for SOEs to take the lead in several sectors. Two years have passed since ChatGPT took the world by storm, and the Party’s theoretical journal now carries a new motto:
‘To deepen the AI+ Special Initiative’
In line with Chinese state rhetoric, the speech was a ceremonial address, full of metaphors and symbolism. The Chinese leader leaned on familiar tropes, quickly introducing tedium—likely a plus in the eyes of the Party, which, in its flagship magazine, dedicated five entries to further explain Xi’s symbolism to the cadres.
It seems the presidential speechwriter preferred to play it safe, overusing generalities and making vague references to ongoing issues rather than addressing concrete challenges. Redundancies were also abundant. We imagine older members of the Z世代 generation might have dozed off while listening—oh wait, they don’t watch TV anyway.
All of the above reminds us to sincerely wish all of our readers the very best for the year ahead. While we can’t promise it will be a great year in terms of trade, it will certainly be a fascinating rollercoaster of emotions and surprises. Happy New Year!