Calling today’s toolkit “managed trade” is not wrong; it captures the spirit of what is going on. When advocates describe current measures as “tilting toward managed outcomes,” it often reads like a polite euphemism. In plain terms, managed trade is when governments steer the amount or direction of trade, not just the price. It shows up through purchase targets, quotas, licensing that allocates quantities, or side deals that lock in volumes or market shares.
The U.S.–China Phase One agreement, signed on 15 January 2020, meets the test of managed trade. It set explicit purchase and volume targets, measured in dollars and broken out by sector. Its binding annex also listed sectoral targets across manufactured goods, agriculture, energy, and services.
There were no formal bilateral quotas, and the text wrapped those targets in “commercial considerations” language, but the core was still outcome-setting. By our own checklist, Phase One was managed trade.
The European Union is pursuing its own line with China. The instruments differ, but the aim is similar: shape outcomes in strategic sectors without always resorting to explicit quotas. It is management by other means.
Beijing’s policy system can nudge trade flows quickly. A shift in approvals, a change in licensing, or guidance to large state-owned and private firms can redirect imports or exports for reasons that are not purely commercial. You do not need formal quotas to manage trade when administrative levers are this strong. For China, managed trade is a feature of its system rather than a bug.
The European Union, the U.S., and China together account for roughly forty per cent of world goods trade (42% in 2024, excluding intra-EU). When these three negotiate bilaterally, tighten controls, or stack targeted measures, the cumulative effect is to pull a large share of global commerce away from a clean multilateral framework. The World Trade Organization still sets many of the legal guardrails, but the centre of gravity is shifting toward a more managed order.
We do not need to pretend this is something else. Much of today’s policy is managed trade in spirit, even when wrapped in softer language. Recognising it clearly helps readers make sense of the headlines and the ripple effects through supply chains.
From January to September, China’s imports from the U.S. fell by $14 billion (about 12%) compared with the same period in 2024. The decline was broad-based, with gross decreases across categories totaling $27 billion; a $10 billion rise in semiconductor imports and a $3 billion increase in aircraft partly offset the fall, leaving a net drop of $14 billion. Three categories explain about two-thirds of the decline, and two alone account for roughly half.
From January to September, China’s exports to the U.S. fell by $65bn (about 17%) compared with the same period in 2024. A dozen categories explain 86% of the decline, while two categories alone account for nearly half.
So far in 2025, the only bright spot in China’s exports to the U.S. is a nearly $1 billion increase in copper products.
Exports tied to overseas contracts are the best gauge of Chinese projects under execution abroad. If a state-owned engineering firm wins a port contract, expect the gantry cranes to be supplied by another state-owned company.
China’s footprint covers nearly all of Africa (51 of 54 countries). While Latin America has slowed, Central Asia’s post-Soviet states have accelerated. In 2025, Saudi Arabia and Russia top the list.
Despite the front-loading frenzy shown in the chart, exports of Christmas goods will be lower than in 2024.
Record China–Argentina surplus on the back of e-commerce and deregulation. SHEIN-led platforms alone to add $28bn to China’s 2025 exports to Argentina. Overall, China’s exports to Argentina are on track to grow more than 70% this year, despite declines in durables such as smartphones and EVs.
Data Jan–Sep shows convenience stores up 6.4%, ahead of specialty 4.8% and supermarkets 4.4%, while brand-exclusive 1.5% and department stores 0.9% are near flat. The read is simple: everyday, proximity spending holds up; mall-based discretionary lags.
Earlier NBS releases had convenience stores at +9.1% (Jan–Apr) and +8.5% (Jan–May); +6.4% (Jan–Sep) suggests momentum cooled through the year. These are nominal and scope-adjusted figures, so they don’t tell us price vs volume or per-store performance.
Growth is top heavy. Overall exports (US$) rose 6.1% in Q1–Q3, but the top five categories combined climbed 22% and now account for 15% of total exports, up from 13% a year earlier.
For the detail-oriented reader: in yuan terms, exports rose 7.1% year on year; general trade grew 8.5%
Baijiu is China’s national spirit, a clear, very strong grain liquor and the go-to drink for toasts at family banquets and business dinners. Even with exports now topping US$1 billion, overseas sales remain only a tiny slice, about 1–2% of China’s domestic market.
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